Panic Check Chart

Lets begin by taking a look at the relevant rules for Panic Tests:

If the Defender suffered any casualties from the attack, they must now make a Panic Test.  WIP Rulebook Page 14.  When a unit makes a Panic Test, it rolls 2 dice and compares the results to its Morale Stat…if it fails to meet its Morale Stat, however the unit immediately suffers 1 automatic casualty for each point it failed its test by.  WIP Rulebook Page 10.

Here is a unit by unit chart that will shed some light on the basic math for an unmodified Panic Test.

BaseMoraleChart

The first column lists the defending units Morale stat.  The second column provides a handy list of the units that have that current Morale stat for ease of reference.  The third column shows the percentage chance that the defender will fail his or her Panic Check, thereby suffering automatic casualties.  The remainder of the chart shows the relative percentages of chances to lose multiple models from a unit due to degrees of failure.

When making simple choices about attacking a unit that has no conditions, the above chart should be helpful.

For the next math segment, we will review the above in the context of the Panicked condition and under what circumstances should a player require the opposition to re-roll.

8 Comments

  1. You might want to change the columns to say Wounds instead; unless I’m mistaken, a “casualty” is a full model being removed, whereas failed morale tests only cause wounds. So something like Flayed Men wouldn’t be fully wiped out for rolling snake eyes.

  2. I’m not sure that is correct. The Rule Book very clearly states “casualty” unless something has changed (perhaps when they modified resilience). Do you have a source that shows they switched casualties to wounds? I have actually been looking for this specific issues in recent demo games, but all of the recent demo games that i have seen are all infantry, where the distinction is meaningless.

    1. The rulebook was also WIP and hasn’t been updated since they got rid of Resilience and gave Cavalry wounds. It seems much more logical that it will cause wounds, otherwise morale penalties to cavalry will be way too powerful. Though I suppose it might be something we don’t get a firm answer to until the rulebook is officially released.

  3. I thought the same thing at first, except when you closely look at the math, you will see that all Cavalry has a 6+ Morale. That means they only fail a test 27.7% of the time, which is the same chance as an 8+ Infantry unit losing 3 models (3 wounds) or a 7+ infantry unit losing 2 models (2 wounds).

    Also, the Panic Check is not triggered on wounds, it is triggered on casualties, so Cavalry have the benefit of “eating” two wounds before they even have to make a check.

    This seems to be relatively balanced…at least enough that I don’t think it is a clear error. As you mentioned, the WIP Rulebook is a work in progress, so anything can happen, but for my proxy games, I am playing with “casualties” not “wounds” because I think it is in line with the math behind the Panic Test.

    1. It seems like the problem is though, that there are a lot of things in the game that cause morale penalties. If you give Flayed Men even a -2, all the sudden you have a solid chance of cutting the entire unit in half. And that’s a unit that’s supposed to be the hardest to kill.

      I think it’s much more likely that CMON just confused terms like casualties and wounds in their original Rulebook (seeing as “wounds” didn’t even exist), and haven’t gotten around to releasing the updated wording.

  4. Nice table. I know I could just make one myself, but I would like to offer a suggestion. Instead of using a “running total” of your “chances”, I would state the actual chances.

    For example, there isn’t a 58.3% chance that the crossbowmen take EXACTLY one wound, rather that’s the chance that they take AT LEAST one wound.

    Sorry for the caps, I wanted to emphasize the wording.

  5. Got it. Will fix the chart this weekend and repost. There are a few minor corrections to it, such as “casualties” from the WIP Rulebook has been confirmed to be “Wounds” in recent game play videos. The chart on my other PC at home, so will modify it when I get back on Saturday and repost.

    Thank you for the suggestion.

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